There are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck. Learning to recognize the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about
– Annie Duke
Annie Duke, siya ay isang professional poker player at sa kanyang librong “Thinking in Bets” pinaliwanag niya ang tatlong poker principles na pwede natin ma-apply sa daily decision making natin. It will significantly increase the quality of our decisions and thereby increase the quality of our lives. Ito ang malupit na three poker principles!
Principle #1: Treat Every Decision as a Bet
Mag-isip ka ng future prediction na sigurado ka sa resulta.
- Sigurado ka ba na ang stock market ay patuloy na tataas o bababa?
- Sigurado ka bang masisiyahan ka sa isang aklat na binili mo kamakailan?
- Sigurado ka bang magiging matagumpay ang iyong susunod na proyekto?
Now, imagine someone (yung tropa mong siga) with an opposing point of view says, “Wanna bet?”
When you are asked na tumaya ng malaking halaga ng pera sa iyong mga paniniwala, you naturally pause, suriin ang iyong mga paniniwala, at iisipin: “What information am I missing? Ano ang alam ng taong ito na hindi ko alam?”
When you think of every decision as a bet, magsisimula kang makakita ng range of possible futures (favorable and unfavorable) and adjust your degree of certainty – sa halip na 100% sure na tama ka, you may be 70% sure na lang. Bilang resulta, you become less biased and more open to new information.
The approach of thinking in bets moved me toward objectivity, accuracy, and open‐mindedness. That movement compounds over time to create significant changes in our lives.
– Annie Duke
Principle #2: Positive Expected Value
Despite any uncertainty about the future, maaari tayong gumawa ng confident bet kung alam nating may inaasahan tayong positibong halaga ang ating taya.
Expected Value = Possible Reward * Likelihood of Reward (probability of success).
If an expected value > personal cost (time, money & attention we need to commit), we have a positive expected value.
Kapag natukoy ng isang poker player na mayroon siyang 50% chance na manalo ng Php20,000 pot, ang inaasahang halaga ay Php10,000 (Php20,000*50%). Kung kailangan lang niyang mag-commit ng Php5,000 sa pot to see if her hand is better than her opponents, she has a positive expected value (Php10,000 is greater than Php5,000). Therefore, she should call the Php5,000 bet. Kung matalo siya, she still made the right decision because if she makes the same bet enough times, she will make money.
Sa buhay, if a potential reward (happiness, money, opportunity, etc.) is worth the cost (time, money, attention, etc.) after adjusting for the probability of getting the potential reward, we should commit with confidence – if we don’t get the desired result, we still made a good decision.
Principle #3: Decision Evaluation (regardless of outcome)
Quality of Outcome =/= Quality of Decision.
Sa Poker, pwedeng mali ang basa ko sa baraha ng kalaban ko, tapos pumusta ako ng malaki pero nanalo ako or draw ang resulta. If I don’t take the time to critically assess and adjust my faulty judgment, I am likely to make the same mistake in the future and get a worse outcome.
Sa Buhay, I can make a terrible decision and get a good result. Pwede akong bumili ng stock based on a hunch or magsimula ng business nang walang market research and still get lucky and make money. Pero, if I use that same haphazard approach when making future decisions, I will undoubtedly lose money in the future.
Iyan ang dahilan kung bakit mahalaga na ikaw at ako ay mag-develop ng sumusunod na habit:
- When we get a good result in life, we must find at least two mistakes we made and admit them to a friend, a coworker, or partner. Not only will this keep us level‐headed, it will also help us make the shift from being results‐focused to process‐focused.
- Admitting mistakes is hard, but admitting mistakes we’ve made on route to a victory is much easier than talking about mistakes that led to a loss.
What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process.
– Annie Duke
Author: The Pinoy Engineer
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