Kailan ka huling nagbago ng isip? When was the last time you changed your mind?
The more willing you are to change your mind (after careful reasoning, not peer pressure), mas mabilis kang aakyat sa tuktok ng iyong napiling larangan.
- Ang mga Superforecasters ay nagbabago ng kanilang isip twice as much as other forecasters bago gumawa ng final prediction.
- Ang mga College students who reconsider their answers before handing in an exam and have more eraser marks sa kanilang pagsusulit score higher kaysa sa mga students who do not rethink their first answer.
- Ang highest‐ranked U.S. presidents in history (ayon sa mga historians) displayed more intellectual curiosity and revised more of their original policies.
Marami sa atin fail to “rethink” our beliefs and opinions dahil we get stuck in overconfidence cycles:
- Form an opinion that feels right. Bumuo ng opinion na sa palagay mo ay tama
- Humanap ng information to support that opinion.
- Feel validated.
- Proudly express ang ating mga opinions.
Overconfidence cycles strengthen sa tuwing tayo ay nangangaral o preach, nag-uusig o prosecute, at namumulitika o politick. When stuck in any of these three modes, feeling right becomes more important than being right, and we stop learning.
Overconfidence Mode #1: Preaching
When preaching our beliefs, nagpapanggap tayong 100% certain to be more persuasive. The more we preach, lalo tayong naniniwala sa ating false sense of certainty and think our beliefs are bulletproof. The more someone preaches about a single type of investment, tulad ng Bitcoin, the more likely they are to dismiss concerning data that could make that investment vulnerable to an attack and lead to a catastrophic loss.
Overconfidence Mode #2: Prosecuting
When prosecuting someone’s belief, bihira nating bigyan ang isang tao ng credit para sa isang magandang ideya. Kung ang isang tao ay nagba-bash sa Bitcoin at naghahanap ng mga dahilan why Bitcoin is a bad investment to score points in a Twitter battle, they will discount pro‐Bitcoin facts and may miss an opportunity to diversify their portfolio and protect their savings.
Overconfidence Mode #3: Politicking
When we politick, we adopt people’s beliefs because we want to be liked and accepted by them. Ang mga pulitiko ay gumagamit ng mga popular na opinion upang makakuha ng boto and have little incentive to question those opinions.
“When we become so wrapped up in preaching that we’re right, prosecuting others who are wrong, and politicking for support, we don’t bother to rethink our own views and get trapped in an overconfidence cycle.” To get ourselves out of an overconfidence cycle, we need to think like scientists.
Adam Grant says (paraphrased)
Think Like a Scientist
Nang tanungin ni Adam Grant ang world‐renowned scientist na si Daniel Kahneman what he does when people find flaws in his research, nagliwanag ang mga mat ani Danny, and he said, “It’s wonderful, I get a chance to be less wrong!”
Great scientists see ideas and beliefs as hunches and hypotheses that need to be tested with data. Kapag ang isang scientist ay nakatagpo ng data which casts doubt on a hypothesis, they see it as an opportunity to develop a better hypothesis and better understand reality.
“In preacher mode, changing our minds is a mark of moral weakness; in scientist mode, it’s a sign of intellectual integrity. In prosecutor mode, allowing ourselves to be persuaded is admitting defeat; in scientist mode, it’s a step toward the truth. In politician mode, we flip‐ flop in response to carrots and sticks; in scientist mode, we shift in the face of sharper logic and stronger data.”
– Adam Grant
Magsimulang mag-isip tulad ng isang scientist by actively seeking out disconfirming information at pagiging mausisa kapag nakakaranas ka ng pagdududa. When doubt turns to curiosity, mayroon kang pagkakataong tumuklas ng mga bagong idea and experience the joy of learning.
Sa pamamagitan ng pag-aaral and improving upon your ideas, you gain confidence in your capacity to learn while remaining humble about what you didn’t know and what you still don’t know ‐ this is called confident humility.
Rethinking Cycle: Doubt >> Curiosity >> Discovery >> Confident Humility >> Doubt…
Ang isang paraan upang mapanatili ang rethinking cycle is to update a note on your phone with two lists: “Things I don’t know” and “Things I’ve learned recently.” Ang isa pang paraan upang manatili sa rethinking cycle is to listen to podcasts ng mga taong nagpapaisip s aiyo kahit na hindi ka sumasang-ayon sa kanilang iniisip.
“Learn something new from each person you meet. Everyone knows more than you about something. Ask people what they’ve been rethinking lately, or start a conversation about times you’ve changed your mind in the past year.”
– Adam Grant
Author: The Pinoy Engineer
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